Home Author ‘Black Swan’ author calls Bitcoin ‘the perfect sucker game during low interest rates’

‘Black Swan’ author calls Bitcoin ‘the perfect sucker game during low interest rates’


Nassim Nicholas Taleb, bestselling author of Black Swan and Antifragiledoes not hide that he is disappointed with Bitcoin.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist, academic, mathematical statistician and former quantitative trader. He is widely recognized as one of the world’s leading experts on probability and uncertainty.

Penguin Random House publishing house describes Taleb’s famous five-book series Uncertain (Duped by chance, The black swan, Procrustes bed, Antifragile, skin in game), which has been translated into forty-one languages, “an investigation of opacity, chance, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk and decision-making in a world we do not understand “.

His editor goes on to say that Taleb “spends most of his time as a stroller, meditating in cafes across the planet”, although since 2008 he has been Emeritus Professor of Risk Engineering at the Tandon School of Engineering in New York University.

In his 2007 book The Black Swan, Taleb wrote that a “Black Swan” event is an event that has the following three attributes:

First, it is an outlier because it is outside the realm of regular expectation, as nothing in the past can convincingly indicate its possibility.

Second, it has an extreme “impact”.

Third, despite its aberrant status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its appearance after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.

I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme “impact” and retrospective (but not prospective) predictability.

A small number of Black Swans explain almost everything in our world, from the success of ideas and religions, to the dynamics of historical events, to elements of our own personal lives.

According to a Twitter post from last weekend, Taleb took a swipe at Bitcoin, arguing that the cryptoasset does not serve as a proper hedge against a number of economic factors.

Taleb asserted that Bitcoin is not a hedge against inflation, oil shortages or stocks, and noted that the number one crypto-asset by market capitalization has failed to serve as a hedge against geopolitical events. . Taleb said that instead, Bitcoin was “actually the exact opposite” and worked like a “perfect game” during periods of low interest rates.

Taleb’s comments come in response to Bitcoin falling to around 50% of its all-time high amid a general sell-off in crypto markets. Despite the global backdrop of upcoming rate hikes and the Ukraine-Russia war, bitcoin failed to appreciate against the dollar.

Taleb, who previously supported the rise of crypto as an alternative source of money, has become increasingly critical of digital assets. Taleb revealed earlier in the month that he had started selling his BTC, noting the crypto-asset’s high volatility and failure to materialize as a suitable form of payment.

In June 2021, Taleb published an article titled “Bitcoin, Currencies, and Bubbles”, arguing that Bitcoin has failed to satisfy the notion of “currency without government”. Taleb asserted that Bitcoin is not a store of value in the short or long term and is not a suitable safe haven for investors.


The views and opinions expressed by the author, or anyone mentioned in this article, are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice. Investing in or trading crypto-assets involves the risk of financial loss.

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